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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-26T16:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-26T16:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47797/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the E in STEREO A COR2 starting at 2026-07-26T16:23Z. It is not seen in GOES CCOR-1 and is covered by a real-time data gap in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. The source of this CME is likely associated with an impulsive M3.2 flare from AR 14494 (S05E03) that peaked at 2026-06-27T15:28Z. The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-31T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47799/1
Model Inputs:
2026-07-26T16:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=315.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2026-07-27T03:14Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-07-31T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-31T16:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-01T00:00Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-29T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260727_031400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 95.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-27T00:13Z

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